The US Open is finally upon us. The second Major Championship of the PGA Tour calendar year brings us to The Country Club, Brookline. With a stacked field, it means that this is one of the few opportunities in the year to bet behind one of the bigger names on tour at a cheaper price. But which names should we look for?
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Custom model
Over the past few months, I’ve been building a weekly custom model to show us which golfers offer the most value. These may not be the most likely to win, but more so gain an edge on Vegas where their lines are undervalued.
Since using this model, I’ve been able to bet 3 of the past 6 tournament winners. Justin Thomas, Max Homa, and Rory McIlroy have all been top plays in the model, while there have been some longer-odds golfers who have cashed in nicely with top-10/20 efforts.
Metrics used to build the US Open model:
Over last 50 rounds:
Off the tee
Fairway %
Approaches 200 yards or longer
Approach
Around the Green
Most recent starts
US Open starts
Sungjae Im (+4000)
Im is one of the more exciting prospects on the PGA Tour right now. He’s ranked 19th in the world and had previous success at the US Open, finishing 22nd back in 2020. However, he doesn’t draw the same level of attention from bettors as similar names in this range. This makes him an appealing play.
Im has been quietly heating up over the past two months, finishing inside the top-25 in each of his past 4 tournaments, with an average finish of 14th.
While he’s the only golfer in my model inside the top 20 to lose shots on approach, he gains in every other metric and ranks 3rd in scrambling, which shows if he does get into trouble around the greens, he can mitigate that with excellent relief play.
Believe it or not, he’s my 4th ranked golfer this week. And at those odds, it’s hard not to bet behind him.
Mito Pereira (+4500)
The Summer of Mito is here. He rebounded nicely from his 3rd place finish at the PGA Championship and to be honest, while that Sunday was gut-wrenching, it was something he’ll be able to draw on in future Major performances. After having his first slice of pie, he’s going to want the whole thing and is well-poised coming into this week.
Out of his last 21 tournaments, he’s finished inside the 25 8 times. His average finish in his last 4 events is 14th place.
He doesn’t lose strokes in any metric and is a brilliant approach player, gaining 0.69 to the field over his last 50 rounds.
Mito won’t be this cheap forever.
Keegan Bradley (+8000)
Bradley is a more volatile Mito. He could have a -7 Saturday and a +7 Sunday. But if he can avoid falling away after hot starts, Bradley is a really enticing play. He’s my 13th graded golfer who has an average finish in his last five US Opens of 16th. In terms of recent form, he’s averaging a top-20.
If Mito is a roulette wheel, Bradley is a scratch-off. Both could be highly profitable, and the stars do seem to be aligning for a nice weekend. I wouldn’t lump the house behind Bradley, but he’s certainly worth a flutter.
Tony Finau (+3500)
Top-10 Tony is heating up at just the right time. He has 10 top-10’s in Major tournaments and his performance at the RBC Canadian Open would’ve done his confidence the world of good.
If putting has been the concern, draining from all over the green last weekend would’ve negated that. He ranks 8th in approaches from over 200 yards, which will be vital here, and he’s the 18th-hottest golfer on tour in terms of recent form.
Max Homa (+4500)
Max is enjoying a career year. He has a win under his belt and hasn’t finished outside of the top-25 since the Masters. He also came 13th at the PGA Championship, showing he can sling it with the big guns in Majors.
However, he has missed the cut in every US Open appearance so far.
Around the green play is a legit concern, but everyones going to struggle this week. He gains points in finding fairways, longer approaches, and on approach in general. So long as he avoids the thick fescue, his main weakness might not be that detremental, and we could see another strong effort.
You can back any of the names here with a free $200 bet by clicking the link below
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Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire
