Phillies vs Nationals: Betting preview & prediction for 7/6/2022

Date:

As my colleague Tommy Orme predicted, the Phillies offense exploded for 11 runs last night in a win of the Washington Nationals. Led by Kyle Schwarber’s two dingers, JT Realmuto‘s three RBI, and Darick Hall‘s three hits, the bats were sizzling last night.

Fresh off of the big win, the Phillies will host the Nationals again with their ace on the mound at 7:05pm tonight.

A solid pitching matchup

Phillies

Last night, Cristopher Sanchez took the bump for Philly for his second start of the year. He pitched a flawless five innings, only allowing two hits and no runs en route to the win.

Tonight, the Phillies now turn to Aaron Nola. The right-hander is coming off an outing against the Braves, where he allowed four runs in seven innings of work. On the season, he’s looked back to his old self, showcasing a 3.13 ERA and an amazing 0.91 WHIP. He’ll look to rebound and keep momentum rolling tonight as he faces off against the Nationals bottom-five ranked in runs scored offense.

Nationals

On the flip side, Josiah Gray takes the mound for the Nats. On the season, he has a 4.22 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP in 15 starts.

In his one start against the Phillies this year, Gray looked elite. He had six scoreless innings of one hit baseball. However, he struggled in his last start a week ago against the Marlins, where he allowed six runs and 10 hits in 5.2 innings of work. If it follows the trend, he’ll have his work cut out for him with the Phillies surging offense.

Quick Lineup Updates

Most notably, a pair of all-stars remain out of this game. Bryce Harper is out indefinitely after getting pins put in his thumb. Meanwhile, Juan Soto tweaked his calf over the weekend and is not planned to be in the lineup again today. As Liam Jenkins pointed out, the Phillies will be grateful they won’t have to face a man who in his last nine is hitting 9-26 with a .346 batting average. He leads the entire league in walks (67) and against this bullpen, there’s a huge chance that Soto would strike on more than one occasion.

Official lineups are not out as of 11am, but they should remain close to yesterdays, especially for the Phillies after their explosion.

Betting Preview

To be honest, it’s silly to even think about fading the Phillies anytime soon against the Nationals. Since 2020, they’ve earned a 25-10 record against the Nats, including a 9-5 record at home (16-5 on the road).

However, there isn’t much value on the Phillies moneyline, sitting around -230 on most books. This being said, you’d have to bet $230 to win $100. It’s the safe bet, but not the most valuable.

Runs will likely be at a surplus again in this game, so a parlay of the Phillies moneyline and the over eight runs at +197 odds may be a good play.

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Photo Credit: AP Photo/Derrick Tuskan

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