Welcome to the Daily Dish, where we give you our MLB best bets for the day.
Below you’ll find the games our betting model thinks give you the best chance at betting wins for the day. This means we won’t just give you the bets most likely to win but those that will win at odds that make it worth betting. We could tell you that a -235 favorite will win, but if you have to bet $235 just to win $100, that’s not a smart bet.
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MLB Best Bets for August 8th
After a poor showing over the weekend, I finished last week at 20-19-3, which is still above .500 but not really where we want to be. Monday is just a short slate, so we only have a few bets, but there are some ones I think could start the week off on the right foot.
We have two bets in the Toronto game with the TOR ML (-138) and the Over on 9.5 (-105). Baltimore is riding high, so many people are thinking they could steal this game, especially with Yusei Kikuchi on the mound, but I’m just as worried about Jordan Lyles; hence, the over play. This Blue Jays team is just better than Baltimore, and our model has them favored by exactly a run tonight. I know George Springer is out, but I still like Toronto here, and the rough starting pitching has the model projecting 11.17 total runs.
The other two ML plays I like are NYY ML (-110) and OAK ML (-125). I think the odds of this Yankee game are skewed by the admittedly poor series against St. Louis. This team is scuffling of late, and Jameson Taillon hasn’t been good. However, I can’t count the Yankees out. This lineup is just too good. Our model has them favored by 1.15 total runs and because that takes into account the last month of performance and not just the last couple of weeks, I think the model may be avoiding the recency bias against the Yankees.
However, the model is also aware that this Angels team is not good. The Athletics are a bit feisty, and Cole Irvin is the better MLB starter here. Our model has the A’s favored by exactly a run, so I’ll take the ML play here.
The one runline bets I think is the best bet to play is SF +1.5 (-140). I know everybody is high on San Diego since the Juan Soto trade, but this is still a lineup that has some holes without Fernando Tatis Jr. and a starting pitching rotation that has been prone to a blow-up start. With the way San Francisco hits lefties, I think they can keep this close against Blake Snell. Our model has SD favored by 0.16 total runs, which makes me think this could be close enough for San Francisco to make use of that free 1.5 runs.
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