Welcome to the Daily Dish, where we give you our MLB best bets for the day.
Below you’ll find the games our betting model thinks give you the best chance at betting wins for the day. This means we won’t just give you the bets most likely to win but those that will win at odds that make it worth betting. We could tell you that a -235 favorite will win, but if you have to bet $235 just to win $100, that’s not a smart bet.
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MLB Best Bets for August 4th
Sitting 10-7-1 through three days is pretty solid, but we want to go into the weekend with a little bit more in the green. We’re still coming out of the MLB trade deadline madness so you’re going to see some crazy high odds that we don’t want to bet on (like the Mets yesterday). As a result, we only have a few picks today.
The only ML play is TOR (-125), which didn’t work out last night. Still, the Blue Jays have Alek Manoah on the hill tonight, and I have far more confidence in him than Sonny Gray. Our model only has the Blue Jays as 0.15 run favorites, so this is admittedly a risk, but I think this Toronto lineup is going to show up tonight.
Two runline bets I think are the best bets are LAD -1.5 (-129) and the SD -1.5 (-132). I’m actually a fan of Jakob Junis, but this Dodgers team is simply better than the Giants, and it’s hard to bet against Clayton Kershaw. Our model has the Dodgers as 2.34 run favorites here, so we’ll take those odds, and the model likes San Diego by 1.31 without even factoring in the new lineup the Padres will run out. When you pair that with Joe Musgrove, it’s hard to bet against them.
I put the CHC/STL U 7.5 (-113) play on Twitter, but I like the nightcap to go under 8.5 as well (-111). Who knows what lineups we’ll see the Cardinals run out, so you can wait if you want, but Jose Quintana and Drew Smyly have been solid this year, and the model projects this for 6.85 total runs, which nicely hits the under.
The last game is WAS/PHI U 9 (-114). With Paolo Espino and Noah Syndergaard on the hill, the desire is to bet the over, but Espino has been solid and the teeth have been taken out of this Nationals offense. Our model has the Phillies scoring almost five runs and the total is still 7.47, so we’ll roll with the under here.
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