MLB Daily Betting Guide: Odds, Schedule, Picks: April 29

Date:

We kept the good times rolling with a 9-3 day our MLB bets yesterday, which helps continue a pretty strong week.

Below, I take you through today’s schedule, the odds for each game along with the starting pitchers, and some picks that should help you not only enjoy the game but also think about which way you want to want to bet the game if that’s something you want to do.

Also, remember, you don’t HAVE to bet on each game. We are giving you our best bets for every game, but if our analysis isn’t landing with you or you just don’t feel like a bet stands out, it’s okay to give that game a pass. There will always be more games to bet on.

Also, we recommend checking the Fangraphs Probables Grid to see the likely starting pitchers from each game with clickable links to get the most in-depth information on each pitcher.

New to betting? Read our Beginner’s Guide to Betting with a glossary of terms

MLB Odds and Schedule, April 29

 

San Diego Padres (13-7) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (8-11), 6:35 p.m. ET

The Padres are surging on offense and now rank 8th in baseball with 4.55 runs scored per game, while Pittsburgh has been fairly mediocre early on, scoring just 3.58 runs per game, good for 22nd in MLB. Both bullpens have also been average to start the year with the Padres having a 4.00 ERA, while the Pirates have a 4.12 bullpen rate.

  • SD Starting Pitcher: Yu Darvish (1-1, 4.43 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 8.85 K/9 in 2021)
  • PIT Starting Pitcher: Zach Thompson (0-2, 10.80 ERA, 2.70 WHIP, 8.10 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

 

Seattle Mariners (11-8) @ Miami Marlins (10-8), 6:50 p.m. ET

Miami ranks 18th in baseball with 3.83 runs scored per game; meanwhile, the Mariners have been much better, ranking 7th in the league with 4.63 runs per game. The Marlins have a solid 3.14 bullpen ERA but the Mariners are slightly better with a 2.94 rate.

  • SEA Starting Pitcher: Matt Brash (1-1, 4.20 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 7.80 K/9)
  • MIA Starting Pitcher: Elieser Hernandez (1-1, 5.87 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 8.80 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

 

Boston Red Sox (8-12) @ Baltimore Orioles (6-13), 7:05 p.m. ET

Boston has been a hot-and-cold offense all year and ranks 21st in baseball with 3.60 runs scored per game, while Baltimore has been consistently bad, ranking tied for 28th with 3.11 runs per game. Both bullpens had been relatively strong to start the year, but both have struggled in recent series and the Orioles now have a 3.80 bullpen ERA, while the Red Sox now have a 3.28 rate.

  • BOS Starting Pitcher: Rich Hill (0-1, 4.85 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 4.85 K/9)
  • BAL Starting Pitcher: Kyle Bradish (2-0, 1.20 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 10.20 K/9 in Minors)
  • The Pick: 

Houston Astros (10-9) @ Toronto Blue Jays (13-7), 7:07 p.m. ET

The Astros continue to struggle to do damage on offense, ranking 22nd with 3.58 runs scored per game, while Toronto is 15th with 4.00 runs per game. The Blue Jays now have a 3.46 bullpen ERA, while Houston has a bullpen ERA of 3.00.

  • HOU Starting Pitcher: Jose Urquidy (1-1, 5.52 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 4.30 K/9)
  • TOR Starting Pitcher: Yusei Kikuchi (0-1, 3.75 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, 6.75 K/9)
  • The Pick: Pass
  • WHY?: This game has all the elements of confusion. Two enigmatic starting pitchers? Yup. Two offenses hitting below expectation? Check. Two lineups that are missing key starters? That too. There’s just so much up in the air here that I don’t feel comfortable putting my money down on it.

 

Los Angeles Angels (13-7) @ Chicago White Sox (7-11), 7:10 p.m. ET

The White Sox have been poor on offense in the wake of all their injuries, ranking 25th in baseball with 3.28 runs per game, while the Angels are surging with 4.95 runs per game, good for 2nd in the league. The Angels continue to struggle with their bullpen (outside of Raisel Iglesias) and now have a 4.11 bullpen ERA while the White Sox have also had some issues and have compiled a 3.81 rate.

  • LAA Starting Pitcher: Noah Syndergaard (2-0, 2.12 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 5.82 K/9)
  • CHW Starting Pitcher: Lucas Giolito (0-0, 1.13 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 16.88 K/9 in just 8 IP)
  • The Pick: 

 

For all of our MLB Betting Guides and News, click here

Minnesota Twins (11-8) @ Tampa Bay Rays (11-8), 7:10 p.m. ET

The Twins’ bats are starting to wake up a bit, but they still rank just 17th with 3.95 runs per game; meanwhile, the Rays are just ahead of them, scoring 4.21 runs per game and ranking 13th in the league. The Twins have had fairly average bullpen performance and have a 3.82 ERA while the Rays have started to settle in and have a strong 2.83 rate.

  • MIN Starting Pitcher: Dylan Bundy (3-0, 0.59 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, 7.04 K/9)
  • TB Starting Pitcher: Corey Kluber (0-1, 3.68 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 7.36 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

 

Philadelphia Phillies (10-10) @ New York Mets (14-6), 7:10 p.m. ET

The Mets have remained a strong offense, ranking 6th in baseball with 4.70 runs per game, but the Phillies have caught up, scoring 4.80 runs per game and ranking 4th in the league. The Mets bullpen has remained anxiety-inducing but effective, with a 3.34 bullpen ERA while Philadelphia has been bad all year and has a 4.17 rate.

  • PHI Starting Pitcher: Aaron Nola (1-2, 3.74 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 10.38 K/9)
  • NYM Starting Pitcher: Tylor Megill (3-0, 2.35 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 8.61 K/9)
  • The Pick: Pass
  • WHY?: The model is giving up no clear path forward here. It has the total projected at 7.61 which is far too close to the current O/U. It has the Mets winning by 1.23 runs, which is not enough to take the spread but also not enough to take the runs with Philly. Nola and Megill have both flashed ace upside, but Nola has also been hit hard in some starts recently and Megill has a limited track record of success. I’m going to watch and enjoy this game without money on the line.

Sep 24, 2021; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; New York Mets pitcher Tylor Megill (38) throws a pitch in the first inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Atlanta Braves (9-11) @ Texas Rangers (6-13), 8:05 p.m. ET

The Rangers offense had a rough series with Houston and now ranks 11th in baseball with 4.37 runs scored per game; meanwhile, the Braves are middle of the pack, scoring just 3.95 runs per game and ranking tied for 16th in the league. However, they did also just get Ronald Acuña Jr. back, which is no small addition. The Rangers pitching is struggling to a 4.21 bullpen ERA while the Braves have hit-and-miss in the early part of the year and have a 3.89 rate.

  • ATL Starting Pitcher: Ian Anderson (1-1, 5.40 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 8.10 K/9)
  • TEX Starting Pitcher: Spencer Howard (1-1, 2.45 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 16.20 K/9 in one start)
  • The Pick: 

 

Chicago Cubs (8-11) @ Milwaukee Brewers (13-7), 8:10 p.m. ET

The Cubs’ offense is still boosted by their series in Colorado and that one massive game against Pittsburgh, but they rank 3rd in baseball with 4.84 runs scored per game; meanwhile, the Brewers are a bit disappointing, scoring just 3.70 runs per game and ranking 20th in the league. The Cubs are, shockingly, the team with the better-performing bullpen so far with a 2.79 bullpen ERA while the Brewers have a 3.36 rate.

  • ATL Starting Pitcher: Kyle Hendricks (1-1, 3.98 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 8.41 K/9)
  • MIL Starting Pitcher: Adrian Houser (1-3, 3.52 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 5.87 K/9)
  • The Pick: Pass
  • WHY?: Both of these pitchers often limit hard contact, but they don’t really miss bats. As a result, they are super hard to rely on. Both teams also have good bullpens, so I kind of want to play the under, but it’s just a bit too low for my liking with the Cubs swinging the bat well and the Brewers capable of doing so. There are just too many unknowns in this game for me to put my money on it.

 

New York Yankees (13-6) @ Kansas City Royals (7-10), 8:10 p.m. ET

The Yankees are showing signs of life and are now scoring 4.47 runs per game to rank 9th in the league, while the Royals continue to flounder, scoring just 3.35 runs per game and ranking 24th in baseball. The Kansas City bullpen has been struggling to start the year with a 4.28 bullpen ERA, while the Yankees have registered a 2.90 mark.

  • NYY Starting Pitcher: Nestor Cortes (0-0, 1.15 ERA, 0.64 WHIP, 14.36 K/9)
  • KC Starting Pitcher: Kris Bubic (0-1, 14.14 ERA, 3.00 WHIP, 6.43 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

 

Arizona Diamondbacks (8-12) @ St. Louis Cardinals (11-7), 8:15 p.m. ET

The Diamondbacks’ starting pitching has been surprisingly solid but the offense still ranks dead last in baseball with just 3.00 runs per game. Meanwhile, St. Louis was held down for most of their series against the Mets and now rank 10th with 4.44 runs per game. These teams have polar opposite bullpens with the Cardinals having a strong 2.74 bullpen ERA and the Diamondbacks registering a 4.05 rate.

  • ARI Starting Pitcher: Madison Bumgarner (0-1, 1.00 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 6.50 K/9)
  • STL Starting Pitcher: Adam Wainwright (2-2, 3.86 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 9.43 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

 

Cincinnati Reds (3-16) @ Colorado Rockies (10-9), 8:40 p.m. ET

The Reds seemed to wake up a bit against the Padres and are coming to Coors at the right time even though they are still ranked 28th with 3.11 runs per game. Meanwhile, the Rockies are excited to be back home, since they have fallen to 13th in baseball with  4.21 runs per game and scored just 2.33 runs per game in their series in Philadelphia. These two bullpens in Coors could be fun, as the Rockies have a league-worst 4.92 bullpen ERA and the Reds are just ahead with a 4.03 mark.

  • CIN Starting Pitcher: Hunter Greene (1-2, 5.27 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 10.54 K/9)
  • COL Starting Pitcher: Antonio Senzatela (1-1, 4.73 ERA, 2.03 WHIP, 3.38 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

 

Cleveland Guardians (7-12) @ Oakland Athletics (10-9), 9:40 p.m. ET

The Guardians rank 12th in baseball with 4.32 runs scored per game, while the Athletics are scoring just 3.79 runs per game and rank 19th in the league. Both teams have had solid but not elite performances from their bullpens so far with Cleveland registering a 3.57 bullpen ERA and Oakland sitting just ahead at 3.03.

  • CLE Starting Pitcher: Aaron Civale (0-2, 9.58 ERA, 1.94 WHIP, 9.58 K/9)
  • OAK Starting Pitcher: Frankie Montas (2-2, 3.28 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 9.12 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

 

Detroit Tigers (6-12) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (12-6), 10:10 p.m. ET

The Tigers rank a poor 26th in baseball with 3.22 runs scored per game, while the Dodgers are on the total opposite end of the spectrum and rank 1st in the league with 5.00 runs scored per game. Both teams have had some of the best relief performances to start the year as both have compiled a 2.28 bullpen ERA.

  • DET Starting Pitcher: Tyler Alexander (0-2, 7.20 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, 7.20 K/9)
  • LAD Starting Pitcher: Tyler Anderson (1-0, 2.84 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 8.53 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

Washington Nationals (6-15) @ San Francisco Giants (13-6), 10:10 p.m. ET

These are two more teams who are on total opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of scoring. The Nationals rank 27th in baseball with 3.19 runs scored per game, and the Giants rank 5th in the league with 4.79 runs scored per game. The Giants have the best bullpen ERA to start the year with a 1.54 mark while the Nationals have been fairly average and have a 3.61 rate.

  • WAS Starting Pitcher: Aaron Sanchez (0-1, 8.31 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 2.08 K/9)
  • SF Starting Pitcher: Alex Wood (2-0, 2.51 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 10.05 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

 

San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Alex Wood delivers in the first inning of a baseball game against the Cleveland Guardians, Sunday, April 17, 2022, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/David Dermer)

F5 Parlay of the Day

We’re going to start moving away from the typical parlay and suggest parlay’s specifically for F5 (first five innings) picks because this gives us the ability to take advantage when we see a lopsided starting pitching matchup.

F5 ML on ATL + OAK + SF

Odds: +313 so $10 would pay out $41.33

Staff Picks

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