MLB Daily Betting Guide: Odds, Schedule, Picks: May 6

Date:

We got back on track yesterday, going 7-3 on our MLB bets to raise us to 25-24 on the week. It’s not quite the 73% win rate we had last week, but we’ll try to crank it back up today.

Below, I take you through today’s schedule, the odds for each game along with the starting pitchers, and some picks that should help you not only enjoy the game but also think about which way you want to want to bet the game if that’s something you want to do.

Also, remember, you don’t HAVE to bet on each game. We are giving you our best bets for every game, but if our analysis isn’t landing with you or you just don’t feel like a bet stands out, it’s okay to give that game a pass. There will always be more games to bet on.

Also, we recommend checking the Fangraphs Probables Grid to see the likely starting pitchers from each game with clickable links to get the most in-depth information on each pitcher.

New to betting? Read our Beginner’s Guide to Betting with a glossary of terms

MLB Odds and Schedule, May 6

Pittsburgh Pirates (10-14) @ Cincinnati Reds (3-22), 6:40 p.m. ET

The Reds have been an atrocious offense, ranking 28th in baseball with 3.16 runs per game, but the Pirates are just barely better, scoring 3.71 runs per game on the season, which ranks 22nd in the league. These two bullpens are also both sub-par, with the Reds pitching to a league-worst 5.07 bullpen ERA and the Pirates compiling a 3.89 mark.

  • PT Starting Pitcher: JT Brubaker (0-2, 6.20 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 9.30 K/9)
  • CIN Starting Pitcher: Connor Overton (2-1, 2.84 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 10.42 K/9 in minors)
  • The Pick: Pass
  • WHY?: There’s nothing to really look about this game. Both starting pitchers are below-average. Both offenses are below-average. Both bullpens are below-average. And it’s supposed to rain all game. I could see maybe wanting to play the under at 8.5, but the model calls for this game to have 7.94 total runs, so that’s super close. The sloppy conditions that could lead to no offense can also lead to errors and lots of walks. I just think the conditions make this game a tough one to bet.

Kansas City Royals (8-15) @ Baltimore Orioles (10-16), 7:05 p.m. ET

The Royals have taken over the crown as the worst offense in baseball, scoring 3.04 runs per game on the season, which is dead last. Baltimore is only slightly better, ranking 26th with 3.38 runs scored per game. Despite Baltimore’s hot start, their bullpen has settled into a 3.63 ERA, while Kansas City has really struggled to a 4.85 bullpen ERA.

    • KC Starting Pitcher: Carlos Hernandez (0-1, 6.00 ERA, 1.89 WHIP, 4.00 K/9)
    • BAL Starting Pitcher: Jordan Lyles (2-2, 4.50 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 7.27 K/9)
    • The Pick: Pass
    • WHY?: Basically lather, rinse, repeat from above. Two bad teams with two below-average starting pitchers in a game that should be wet and ugly. It’s just really hard to tell which way that will break, so I would recommend just avoiding it.

New York Mets (19-9) @ Philadelphia Phillies (11-15), 7:05 p.m. ET

Wow! What a crazy finish last night with the Mets scoring seven runs in the 9th to come back and beat the Phillies. The Mets’ bats had been cooling off slightly, but still rank 8th with 4.57 runs per game, while the Phillies are just behind in 9th with 4.54 runs per game. The Mets’ bullpen had a really poor performance in the Braves series and now has a 3.72 ERA while the Phillies imploded last night and now have a 4.50 rate.

  • NYM Starting Pitcher: Max Scherzer (4-0, 2.61 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 12.19 K/9)
  • PHI Starting Pitcher: Kyle Gibson (2-1, 2.93 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 8.46 K/9)
  • The Pick: GAME IS POSTPONED

Chicago White Sox (11-13) @ Boston Red Sox (10-16), 7:10 p.m. ET

Man, the Red Sox are tough to watch lately as just nothing is going right. On the season, they are scoring just 3.46 runs per game, ranking 25th in baseball, which is somehow ahead of the White Sox, who rank 27th with 3.29 runs scored per game. The Red Sox’s bullpen has started to unravel and now has a 4.50 ERA compared to the White Sox’s 3.48 mark.

  • CHW Starting Pitcher: Vince Velasquez (1-2, 4.58 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 9.68 K/9)
  • BOS Starting Pitcher: Nathan Eovaldi (1-0, 2.51 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 10.05 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

Apr 8, 2022; Bronx, New York, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi (17) pitches the ball against New York Yankees during the first inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tom Horak-USA TODAY Sports

Want to learn more about betting on MLB? Read our MLB Betting Resource Guide

Toronto Blue Jays (16-11) @ Cleveland Guardians (12-13), 7:10 p.m. ET

Toronto has been failing to meet expectations on offense so far and comes in at just 3.78 runs per game, which ranks 21st; meanwhile, the Guardians are 6th with 4.68 runs per game. These have been two under-performing bullpens with the Blue Jays pitching to a 3.81 mark and the Guardians improving lately to register a 3.53 rate.

  • TOR Starting Pitcher: Kevin Gausman (2-1, 2.27 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 11.65 K/9)
  • CLE Starting Pitcher: Shane Bieber (1-1, 2.45 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 8.90 K/9)
  • The Pick: Pass
  • WHY?: Oh, hey, another ugly rain game. Are you sensing a trend right now? The weather on the East Coast is miserable today and while some of these games will play, others will be postponed, and still others will have long delays in the middle of them. It’s really hard to make a profit when gambling on sports, so why add other obstacles in your way like uncontrollable weather?

Milwaukee Brewers (18-8) @ Atlanta Braves (12-15), 7:20 p.m. ET

The Brewers are on fire of late, scoring 11.33 runs per game in their series against the Reds, and now sit at 4.92 runs per game on the season, which ranks 2nd in the league. The Braves have been far more inconsistent, scoring 3.96 runs per game, which is good for 18th in the league. These two bullpens are both fairly solid, with the Brewers pitching to a 2.88 bullpen ERA and the Brewers compiling a 3.20 mark.

(*Braves will start Jesse Chavez, but Spencer Strider will come in to be the primary pitcher) 

  • MIL Starting Pitcher: Eric Lauer (2-0, 1.93 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 13.11 K/9)
  • ATL Starting Pitcher: Spencer Strider (0-1, 2.84 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 11.37 K/9 as a bulk reliever)
  • The Pick: 

 

Detroit Tigers (8-16) @ Houston Astros (15-11), 8:10 p.m. ET

The Astros continue to struggle to score, totaling 3.81 runs per game and ranking 20th in the league, while Detroit ranks 29th in baseball with 3.08 runs per game. The Tigers have had the second-best bullpen performance in the league to start the year, with a 2.30 ERA, which is slightly better than Houston’s 2.87 mark.

  • DET Starting Pitcher: Beau Brieske (0-1, 3.60 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 5.40 K/9 in two starts)
  • HOU Starting Pitcher: Luis Garcia (1-1, 4.15 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 7.89 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

 

Oakland Athletics (10-15) @ Minnesota Twins (15-11), 8:10 p.m. ET

The Twins have been dealt a tough hand. Alex Kirilloff, Miguel Sano, and now Carlos Correa all find themselves on the IL, which has taken some thump out of this lineup. They had been starting to get hot and are now scoring 4.23 runs per game on the season, good for 14th. Oakland has started to slip of late, scoring just 2.67 runs per game against Tampa and now ranking 23rd on the season with 3.68 runs scored per game. Both teams have had fairly average bullpens this season with Minnesota having a 3.46 bullpen ERA and Oakland carrying a 3.62 rate.

  • OAK Starting Pitcher: Zach Logue (0-0, 5.63 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, 7.31 K/9 in minors)
  • MIN Starting Pitcher: Josh Winder (1-0, 2.20 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 6.61 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

 

Washington Nationals (9-18) @ Los Angeles Angels (17-10), 9:38 p.m. ET

The Nationals benefited from their series in Coors, scoring 6.33 runs per game in Denver and now ranking 15th in baseball with 4.22 runs per game, while the Angels have consistently been one of the best offenses in the league, scoring 4.74 runs per game, good for 5th in baseball. However, the Nationals’ bullpen has been super hittable with a 4.06 bullpen ERA while the Angels have been improving of late and carry a 3.62 bullpen ERA.

  • WAS Starting Pitcher: Joan Adon (1-4, 7.33 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 8.10 K/9)
  • LAA Starting Pitcher: Jamie Barria (0-0, 2.31 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 6.17 K/9 as a reliever)
  • The Pick: 

Colorado Rockies (15-10) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (13-13), 9:40 p.m. ET

The Rockies have benefited from a lot of home games early, ranking 3rd in baseball with 4.80 runs per game, while Arizona has been improving of late but still ranks 24th with 3.50 runs per game. However, these bullpens have both been super hittable with the Rockies pitching to a 4.87 bullpen ERA and the Diamondbacks just slightly ahead with a 4.68 rate.

  • COL Starting Pitcher: Chad Kuhl (3-0, 1.90 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 6.46 K/9)
  • ARI Starting Pitcher: Merrill Kelly (2-1, 1.27 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 8.26 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

 

Miami Marlins (12-13) @ San Diego Padres (17-9), 9:40 p.m. ET

The Padres’ bats have been heating up a bit, ranking 7th in the league with 4.65 runs per game; meanwhile, Miami has been a hot-and-cold offense all year and ranks 19th in baseball with 3.96 runs scored per game. The Marlins feature a solid bullpen with a 3.02 mark, and the Padres are pitching to a 4.04 bullpen ERA.

  • MIA Starting Pitcher: Sandy Alcantara (2-1, 2.90 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 7.55 K/9)
  • SD Starting Pitcher: Yu Darvish (2-1, 4.44 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 8.54 K/9)
  • The Pick: 

 

Tampa Bay Rays (16-10) @ Seattle Mariners (12-14), 9:40 p.m. ET

The Mariners have really struggled of late, scoring just 1.67 runs over their last three games and now rank 17th in baseball with 4.12 runs per game, while the Rays rank 11th in baseball with 4.35 runs scored per game. These are two solid bullpens with Rays pitching to a 2.79 mark and Seattle coming in with a 3.13 bullpen ERA.

    • TB Starting Pitcher: Josh Fleming *Bulk (2-3, 6.32 ERA, 1.85 WHIP, 9.19 K/9)
    • SEA Starting Pitcher: Logan Gilbert (4-0, 0.64 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 8.68 K/9)
    • The Pick: 

 

St. Louis Cardinals (15-10) @ San Francisco Giants (14-11), 10:15 p.m. ET

The Giants’ offense has been non-existent lately, scoring just one run per game over their last three, and dropping them to 10th in baseball with 4.48 runs per game on the season. Meanwhile, St. Louis broke out of their mini-slump and is now averaging 4.32 runs per game on the season, good for 13th in the league. Both teams also have tremendous bullpens, even with the Giants’ struggles this past series. On the season, the Giants are pitching to a 3.44 bullpen ERA, and the Cardinals come into the series with a 3.10 mark.

  • STL Starting Pitcher: Jordan Hicks (1-2, 3.65 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 9.49 K/9)
  • SF Starting Pitcher: Alex Cobb (1-1, 5.40 ERA, 1.90 WHIP, 12.60 K/9)
  • The Pick: Pass
  • WHY?: This is just a tough one to figure out. Both offenses have been hot-and-cold. Jordan Hicks will likely only go three innings, but the Cardinals (generally) have a solid bullpen. However, Alex Cobb looked awful coming off the IL and not at all like the pitcher he was before missing time, so we have no idea what version of him we’re going to get here. I’m just gonna stay away.

For all of our MLB Betting Guides and News, click here

May 1, 2022; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Jordan Hicks (12) pitches against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the first inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

F5 Parlay of the Day

We’re going to start moving away from the typical parlay and suggest parlay’s specifically for F5 (first five innings) picks because this gives us the ability to take advantage when we see a lopsided starting pitching matchup.

HOU (F5 ML) + MIN (F5 ML) + MIL/ATL (Under 4.5 F5)

Odds: +320 so $10 would win you $42.05

 

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