Welcome to the Daily Dish, where we give you our MLB best bets for the day.
Below you’ll find the games our betting model thinks give you the best chance at betting wins for the day. This means we won’t just give you the bets most likely to win but those that will win at odds that make it worth betting. We could tell you that a -235 favorite will win, but if you have to bet $235 just to win $100, that’s not a smart bet.
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MLB Best Bets for August 15th
After a strong start to the week last week, we sadly had a poor Sunday which put our final weekly record at 28-21. Not bad, but certainly not where we were for much of the week. We’ll try for that 60% line this week.
We only have two moneyline bets tonight with SD ML (-141) and HOU ML (-133). San Diego is a much better team than Miami. The only reason the line is under our -150 cap is that Miami is throwing Sandy Alcantara. However, San Diego is countering with Joe Musgrove, who has been tremendous all season as well. That balances out Miami’s suspected pitching advantage, and our model has San Diego favored by 1.89 total runs today.
Houston is also taking on a White Sox team that is without Luis Robert and Tim Anderson. Even without the model knowing that, it says Houston is favored by 0.99 runs, so I like the Astros today at solid odds on the ML.
There are three plays I like today on the runline, all underdogs: BAL +1.5 (-150), NYM +1.5 (-150), and ARI +1.5 ML (-135). Baltimore and New York both come in at our -150 cap. I usually don’t want to have to bet $150 to win $100, so we can roll with these since they’re right at that line. It’s hard to bet against the Mets right now, and they controlled Spencer Strider the last time out. Our model believes the Mets are underdogs but has them losing by just 0.69 runs. Given their recent performance, I’ll take the runs there.
Same goes for the Orioles. Baltimore has been strong of late, and I simply can’t back Yusei Kikuchi. He has been consistently poor. Our model has Toronto favored by just 0.26 runs, which sees far too close and a good reason to take the one and a half runs.
We end with three plays on the O/U: PHI/CIN O9, CHC/WAS U8, and LAD/MIL O7.5. We’ll start with the under between two mediocre offenses with two solid pitchers going in Marcus Stroman and Josiah Gray. Our model has this total at 7.01 runs, which is not quite the one full run difference that we like to see but essentially right there.
The model also thinks a matchup between Noah Syndergaard and Mike Minor in hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark is due for fireworks and 10.77 total runs, which is safely over nine. It also thinks that Julio Urias and Freddy Peralta are getting a touch too much respect against two good offenses. Our model has this for 9.39 total runs, which makes me feel good about the over.
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